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Mark Donahue Mark Donahue is an associate editor for Telephony magazine. Previously, he worked in The Associated Press’ Chicago bureau, as well as two trade publications. He graduated from...more

Telecommunications Industry Association (TIA) Forecasts 3.1 Percent Loss for ICT Industry in 2009

First Overall Decline TIA Has Ever Predicted, but Recovery to Begin in 2010 as Broadband Stimulus Funds Are Injected Into Economy


Washington, D.C. – For the first time in its 23 years of forecasting for the information and communications technology (ICT) industry, the Telecommunications Industry Association (TIA) is projecting a 3.1 percent decline in revenue for the overall global ICT market in 2009 due to global economic conditions. In the U.S., revenue will suffer a 5.5 percent decline in 2009.

At a press conference held today, TIA released the 2009 ICT Market Review & Forecast, TIA’s annual market intelligence report filled with data and analysis. (Watch a Webcast recording that includes the narrated presentation and a question and answer session.)

While revenue will remain weak in 2010, with a modest 1.2 percent increase, the longer-term outlook is much brighter. Globally, TIA projects a strong rebound for the ICT industry after 2010, citing a 6.4 percent revenue growth in 2011 and a 7.9 percent increase in 2012.

For the U.S., telecommunications revenue is expected to decrease by 6.4 percent in the next two years, but rebound by 14.4 percent during 2011-12. The effects of the current Stimulus Package, which carves out investment dollars for broadband, will enable growth throughout the ICT industry and beyond.

“Broadband will be a driver for recovery in all areas, from healthcare IT to smart grid technology, public safety networks to education, as well as for businesses and consumers,” said Grant Seiffert, TIA President. “While TIA was instrumental in obtaining the $7.2 billion for broadband, other funding for energy, health IT and R&D will also spur recovery, especially in reviving some of the hundreds of thousands of jobs lost recently. The sum of increased productivity and revenue amongst all other industry segments whose growth broadband deployment contributes to is often underrated and perhaps immeasurable.”

Growing demand for high-volume data applications is driving all segments, say the independent, unbiased analysts at Wilkofsky Gruen Associates who help to develop the Market Review & Forecast. Despite the recession, TIA predicts that wireless and business data revenue will grow by 73 percent during the next four years to $110 billion in 2012 from $64 billion in 2008.

Further analysis shows that economic recovery during 2011-12 will be driven by pent-up demand for equipment upgrades. Growth in data traffic will strain network capacity and stimulate investment; availability of financing will fuel investment; and broadband growth will expand the platform for VoIP and IPTV.

Recognizing that comprehensive market intelligence is more critical than ever for ICT companies positioning themselves to survive — and thrive – when the economy begins to rebound, TIA is offering an interactive version of the Market Review & Forecast as part of the new TIA Market Intelligence Service. TelecomTV is collaborating with TIA in offering the new online service, augmented by value-adds such as news updates, webinars, industry analyses and more.

TIA’s 2009 ICT Market Review & Forecast includes:

• Detailed activities and metrics from prior years

• Projections, trends and anticipated performance for short-term (upcoming year) and mid-term (3-5 years out)

The target audience includes equipment manufacturers, service providers, software vendors, content providers and the media. Sectors covered in the publication include:

• Landline

• Wireless

• Enterprise

• Network equipment

• Broadband

• VoIP

• Data transport

• Internet access

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About TIA

The Telecommunications Industry Association (TIA) represents the global information and communications technology (ICT) industry through standards development, advocacy, tradeshows, business opportunities, market intelligence and world-wide environmental regulatory analysis. With roots dating back to 1924, TIA enhances the business environment for broadband, mobile wireless, information technology, networks, cable, satellite and unified communications. Members’ products and services empower communications in every industry and market, including healthcare, education, security, public safety, transportation, government, the military, the environment and entertainment. TIA co-owns the SUPERCOMMĂ‚® tradeshow and is accredited by the Ame! rican National Standards Institute (ANSI). Visit tiaonline.org.

TIA’s Board of Directors includes senior-level executives from ACS, ADC, ADTRAN, Alcatel-Lucent, ANDA Networks, ArrayComm, AttivaCorp, Avaya, Bechtel Communications, Inc., Cisco Systems, Corning Incorporated, Ericsson, Inc., GENBAND, Inc., Graybar, Henkels & McCoy, ILS Technology, Intel Corporation, Intersect, Inc., LGE, Microsoft, Motorola, Nokia Siemens Networks, Nortel, Panasonic Computer Solutions Co., Qualcomm, Research In Motion, Sumitomo Electric Lightwave Corporation, Tellabs, Tyco Electronics, Ulticom, Inc., and Verari Systems. Advisors to the Board include FAL Associates, Orca Systems and Telcordia Technologies.

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